My Cedric Benson Blog

Like so many millions of young sports-crazed boys, in my formative years I was a baseball card fanatic. But one thing that I never understood about baseball cards is why rookie cards were always worth more money than any other cards. I bring this up, because I'm equally confused when it comes to rookie contracts in the NFL.

Why is it that rookies -- players who haven't accomplished anything in the league are paid exorbitant sums of money and put in positions to hurt their teams by holding out? Case in point: two-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady signed a contract extension that included $32 million guaranteed, perennial All-Pro and future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace signed an extension with $18 million guaranteed, and rookie quarterback Alex Smith - who was a one-year wonder at the football factory that is Utah, and who hasn't taken a single snap in a regular season game - signed a contract that guarantees him $24 million. Curious.

This year featured more first-round holdouts and more acrimony in NFL rookie negotiations than any in recent memory. At one point, players like David Pollack, Adam Jones, Roddy White and Cedric Benson were projected starters for their respective teams. However, due in part to their extended holdouts, as of right now none of those players figure to crack the starting lineup come Week One.

The irony here is that these players are squabbling over a slight increase in money now - and by slight I mean in percentages, not in actual figures - and by doing so jeopardizing their long-term earning potential. By holding out, these rookies are missing valuable acclimation time in training camp, they're alienating themselves from their coaches, teammates and fans, and earning reputations as people who are difficult to work with. Furthermore, the track record for rookies that hold out more than 10 days is a train wreck.

The NFL is in the middle of negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement. I wouldn't be surprised (and am actually hoping for) a change that institutes a rookie pay scale, similar to what the NBA has in place. In the NBA system the contracts' length and worth are figured on a graduated scale and preset based on when players are picked. Starting this in the league would effectively end NFL rookie holdouts, and help ensure that more money is invested in accomplished NFL players as opposed to the potential-laden first-round picks that have a hit-or-miss history in the league. I don't see where the NFLPA would have a problem with this, given that about 80 percent of the players in the league weren't No. 1 picks and a pay scale would mean more money for them.

Here's a list of 10 rookies that I expect to have a definite, tangible impact on their team's fortunes this season, for good or ill. I would wager that of the 10 teams that these players represent, the ones that get the most production from their first-year players will be the ones still alive in January.

J.J. Arrington, RB, Arizona

The Cardinals are the trendy sleeper pick this season in the weak NFC West. Arrington follows in the footsteps of the NFL's leading rusher, Emmitt Smith, who retired after the 2004 season. That sounds more dramatic than it really is, since it's not like Smith actually did anything in Arizona. Arrington topped the 2,000-yard mark at Cal last fall, and has the speed and shake to be a productive scat back. However, he is small (5'9'' 214 lbs.), he has fumbled twice in two preseason games, and it remains to be seen whether he can take an NFL pounding.

Derrick Johnson, LB, Kansas City

So far I've heard from several sources that this kid is just an animal. He was by far and away the best defensive player in the draft, but he slipped to No. 15 and fell into the Chiefs' lap. Johnson will join Sammy Knight, Patrick Surtain and Kendrell Bell in a retooled K.C. defense. If you can find anyone dumb enough to take your wager, bet your mortgage on Johnson as the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh

The Steelers have never really utilized the tight end in the passing game (average of 18 catches a year since 1998). In fact, they'd rather have a sixth lineman than a pass catcher in the TE slot. Miller could change all of that. With sure hands and outstanding speed, Miller could slice up some seams in the defense this fall. Plexico Burress is gone so Pittsburgh is going to need other playmakers to step up. Also his size (6'5'' 256) will make him an inviting red zone target.

Mike Nugent, K, New York Jets

Doug Brien converted 83 percent of his kicks in 2004, but was exposed the after a pair of missed game winning field goals missed against Pittsburgh last January. Tough crowd. Enter the kid. Nugent won the Lou Groza Award last fall and was prolific at Ohio State. He was deemed worthy of a second round pick by New York, the third highest a kicker has ever been drafted. New York's style lends itself to a lot of close games. That means Nugent will face plenty of clutch kicks this season.

Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville

The Jags pick of Jones 21st overall may have been the shocker of the first round in April. He is a converted quarterback out of Arkansas, and will be expected to step right in and contribute. Last year's No. 1 pick Reggie Williams had an awful rookie season, and besides 36-year-old Jimmy Smith the Jags don't have much of a receiving corps. Byron Leftwich could be ready for a breakout year, but if that's going to happen than Jones is going to have to take advantage of the mismatches (he's 6'6'', 242) he'll most likely face.

David Pollack, LB, Cincinnati

When Pollack was at Georgia, the coaches used to have to take him off the practice field because the offense just couldn't get anything done when he was out there. He was that dominant. The Bengals are hoping that he can make the adjustment to linebacker in their 3-4 alignment. Pollack held out for 20 days, which could stunt his growth in the early part of this season. However, he will have the benefit of playing alongside college teammate Odell Thurman. Thurman was picked up in the second round by Cincinnati and is also projected as a starting linebacker for the league's 26th-rated run defense.

Alex Barron, OT, St. Louis

What a spot for Barron, college football's Outland Trophy winner last fall, to be in. He gets to apprentice next to Adam Timmerman and on the same line as Orlando Pace. Barron not only held out, which pissed off head coach Mike Martz, but he missed his first practice after he signed with the team - unexcused. You don't want to get in Martz's doghouse. Just ask Kyle Turley.

Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago

As a Bears fan I'm disgusted with this whole situation. As if it wasn't bad enough that we had to stare in horror at his freak out on draft day (you know, when he started panting, sweating, babbling and sobbing during his interview with Suzy Kolber after he was selected fourth by the Bears) now we have to wait for him to put his avarice aside and become a team player. He can make it up to me with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta

White held out for the first two weeks of camp and, wouldn't you know it, he got injured (ankle) in his first preseason game after his return. I'm not saying that his injury had any physical link to his hold out I'm just saying it's bad karma. Some in Falcons camp insist that Peerless Price is still the No. 1 receiver in Atlanta, but still others surmise that he's going to get cut to free up cap space. The jury is still out. But it's clear that big things are expected from White, the second wideout Atlanta has taken in the first round in two years (Michael Jenkins in 2004).

Fred Gibson, WR, Philadelphia

OK, so T.O. being back in camp takes the onus off Gibson. However, who knows how long that whine ass will hold up this season. Regardless, the Eagles lack a No. 2 option, and rumor has it that Gibson has looked really good this August in camp. He was labeled as soft during his time at Georgia, but he could blossom under the guidance of a team player like Owens (just kidding).

Honorable mention: Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay; Erasmus James, DE, Minnesota; Jammal Brown, OG, New Orleans; Daryl Blackstock, LB, Arizona; Roscoe Parrish, WR, Buffalo, Chris Henry, WR, Cincinnati.

Well Week 1 of the NFL season is almost upon us and like the college football opener last weekend, this event is like Christmas in September for our stable of professional handicappers. After the incredible opening performance we had with our college football week 1 picks, we now turn our attention to the opening week of the NFL season. There are 15 games at our disposal. 15 games to analyze and handicap so that we can pass along the correct information to our many subscribers who have trusted out judgment for over 10 years. Now for us professional cappers, week 1 of both college and the NFL season are the hardest weeks we have to deal with. There are many uncertainties at work here and trying to figure out who is decent and who is terrible is not so easy when no games have been played. The oddsmakers also have a difficult time releasing adequate lines and we have seen over the years that Vegas either loses a ton of money in week 1 due to poor lines, or wins a ton of money, due to great lines.

Now as far as the NFL is concerned, it is only mildly easier to handicap week 1 games as compared to college football. For one, there are four NFL preseason game that serve as a decent barometer to tell how good a team can be. Also, you have more steadiness in NFL rosters due to the fact you don't constantly have kids graduating and jobs constantly being taken over. So with that as a backdrop, we examined Week 1's lines and started doing hardcore analyzing once the fourth preseason games were in the books. Our picks are all pretty much finished and they are being prepared to be sent out shortly but I must say that there are some very interesting lines out there.

For example you have the worst team in the NFL by far last season, the Oakland Raiders being favored at home against the Detroit Lions. Also, you have another poor team, the Houston Texans being favored by 3 points at home against a veteran Kansas City Chiefs team. Now surely the presence of QB Matt Schaub for the Texans is a major reason for the role as the favorite here but this is a big example of how an off-season transaction can have a major impact on a betting line for the first week of the season. We haven't seen any games yet and so no one really knows if this status is warranted for the Texans of if they are still a poor club. Hence the challenge everyone in this line of work has. However, we have used our dozens of winning formula, game trends, and stats to weed out who we like and we have used these winning formulas to accumulate a nearly 60 percent winning mark in 10 years of business. Our college football picks went 26-12 ATS in Week 1 and a good deal of the picks were there for everyone to see on our site. As far as Week 1 of the NFL season, we feel like we made very solid choices and here are a few freebies for you to enjoy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: In a division slugfest, the Cincinnati Bengals look to put a turbulent off-season behind them as they take on the Baltimore Ravens at home. Just like St. Louis-Carolina, this figures to be a battle of strong offense vs. strong defense. For Cincy, QB Carson Palmer is already one of the top three passers in the league and there is no reason to believe that he won't pass for 4,000 yards and possibly as many as 35 TD's. Having a pair of Pro Bowl receivers in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh around will further solidify his place among the NFL's elite. It will be interesting to see how Cincy comes out offensively in this one as Baltimore's defense is strong in all aspects. RB Rudi Johnson will find the running room very tight as DT Haloti Ngata's 350 pound frame will clog the middle and IF he can make it through, MLB Ray Lewis will be waiting to smash him in the mouth. The Bengals will most likely keep their attack in the air as Houshmandzadeh will have the easier assignment with Samari Rolle covering as opposed to Chad Johnson having to deal with Chris McAllister.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, expect to see a heavy dose of new RB Willis McGahee as the Bengal run defense struggled at times last year. Steve McNair is back for another go round and he is still crafty enough to get the ball downfield to wideouts Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Offense however is not this team's strong suit and scoring in the 20's is about the best that this unit can do. So on the surface, expecting the Ravens to outscore Baltimore will take a huge defensive effort which we don't anticipate to the degree that they can win this game outright. The Bengals should come out flying in front of the home crowd and will be extra pumped up going against a key division rival. Although the Raven D can do enough to keep them in the game, the Bengals have way too much firepower to be held in check for long. The Bengals have also covered four of their last five against the Ravens and the favorite in the last seven games in the series is now 6-1 ATS. THE PICK: Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) Chicago Bears: Best match up this upcoming Sunday as this is a potential Super Bowl preview between two very good teams. The Bears rode a record setting defense all the way to the Super Bowl last season and have the same unit pretty much completely intact going into 2007. The Chargers on the other hand are looking to do big things and erase the sting of losing in their first playoff game, which ultimately cost coach Marty Schoettenheimer his job. Marty has now been replaced by Redskins and Raiders retread Norv Turner and Turner should have an immediate impact on the San Diego offense. Led by All-World RB LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers have a great nucleus in QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. The offensive line is arguably the best in the league and the receiving corp. is getting better. Expect Norv to open up the offense and to completely due away with the conservative game-planning that held this team back in 2006. Of course it would impossibly to say LT could top his ridiculous performance last season but he is still in his prime and certainly has a great chance of having another monster season.

Look for the Chargers to open up their attack by running Tomlinson up the middle and having Rivers throw him passes in the flat which he can turn up field into big gains. The Chicago defense is much too quick to run on the outside and so this plan of attack will be the best way for San Diego to get production out of Tomlinson. As far as Rivers is concerned, look for his focus to be mainly on his star TE as the ferocious Chicago pass rush will be out for blood. Rivers won't have all day to throw so Gates will be instructed to run his 15 yard slants that he is so famous for. Of course Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has the athleticism to stay with Gates and so this battle could go either way. The Chargers' receiving corp. is led by the emerging Vincent Jackson and supported by Eric Parker. San Diego is at a major disadvantage against the Chicago CB duo of Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher and so don't expect much of a downfield passing attack.

The Chicago offense has potential themselves but the big question centers of course on inconsistent QB Rex Grossman. There are times that Grossman looks like the next Joe Namath and others when he looks like the next Ryan Leaf. His inability to put back-to-back solid outings together is maddening but it's hoped that off-season tutoring will allow Rex to fulfill his potential and become a solid every-week performer. A big issue for Grossman in this game is the great pass rush that the Chargers will bring with OLB Shawne Merriman and DE Luis Castillo. San Diego's defensive line and LB's are so strong that the Bears will have a very difficult time running the football with RB Cedric Benson. Benson has the starting job all to himself but this is a very tough opponent to face in Week 1. Don't expect much out of the Chicago running game and so the focus will be on Grossman getting the ball out quickly to his TE's Desmond Clark and rookie Greg Olsen. WR Mushin Muhammud will also be targeted often as the veteran is still a great route runner who can help move the chains. All in all, it will be very difficult for the Bears to get much going offensively unless the offensive line can hold off the rush.

We believe this game will be a very low scoring affair that ultimately the Chargers will win due to their superior offense. Will they do enough to overcome the six-point spread? We think not as we expect a 21-17 win. Also looking at the game trends, the Bears have covered four straight games vs. the Chargers and have gone an incredible 17-2-1 ATS record against the AFC West in their last 20 meetings. Finally, the Bears are 7-3 ATS as an underdog in season openers the last 27 years. THE PICK: Chicago Bears (+6)

The Bears travel to Cincinnati in hopes of getting his first victory road of the quality of the season. The Bengals and the Bears had their winning streaks come to an end, but only a computer will redeem since last week.

Bears on offense
Chicago you need to set the tone early Cincy, and Chicago, I mean to Jay Cutler. Cutler has led to the offensive on his back, and for which a Quarterback with few playmakers work with, is clearly playing it sufficiently well as for a contract extension. The Bears on average only 89.8 yards rushing in a game not thanks to Matt Forte, who, with only one touchdown in 3.4 yards a carry, desatinados has done its "forte", coughing up the ball three times in 5 games. The Bears need Forte to step against an improved Cincy long run D. If he can make the Bengals, account being taken pressure on Cutler and free of Rails for step bears attack. Cutler and co.They must be aggressive and go after high school for the Bengals, which left almost 400 yards last week and made Texan QB Matt Schaub look like Dan Marino.Body of receiver bears (which lacks a dominant threat) have to find ways to get open and must deliver top - step from the Cincy DE Antwan Odom - Cutler.Corredor fell last week with a tear Aquiles.Ausencia Odom can limit the ability of the Bengals rattlesnake Cutler, who has had 7 selections in 3 games away from home this season.

Bengals offense
In spite of the week get abused at home by the Texans, the Bengals are seeking Buenos these days. Carson Palmer is taking charge of a full of weapons, offense starring Chad Ocho H.O.F.er future.Eight is having a solid year; somehow, he was able to incorporate their shenanigans in a routine and still be an impact player. This week, eight call Chicago CB Charles Tillman on Twitter, suggesting that Tillman can not protect you. You know what, eight probably for that.Palmer requires feed receiving enigmatic ball and find the Andre Caldwell, who has become a good second choice. Cedric Benson is to put race numbers - he is third in 531 yards rushing.Cincy needs to give Benson at least 25 hints for getting maximum mileage out of it.And it would be imprudent not to mention the added fuel driving Benson this week - he faces with the team that launched last year, a team claiming dirt spread about him after his liberation. Despite that Benson maintains that the Sunday game isn't about revenge, his work in the field could tell you what contrario.Un group which will definitely feel anger Benson is Urlacher less rupees from Chicago, who has just lost to Pisa Tinoisamoa for the season.

Cutler and the Bears will be a fight for injuries and the lack of success of the road.But Chicago has an answer for the playmakers Bengal, which will be the difference in the Cincy juego.Busque that patched her D and Palmer and the boys to play winning football again.

Prediction
Cincinnati 27
Chicago 20

The season 2009 has been interesting so far, especially in the world of fantasy football. Some players with high expectations have failed so far, and no one expected that most of the users that have arisen in should players start each weekend. It is interesting how it works, but that is what we get when it comes to the wild world of professional football. Without further ADO, here are some of the players that have so far been very pleasant surprises in the first part of the season.

1 Pierre Garcon. This Indianapolis Colts wide receiver has become a name of not to a wide receiver bona fide within weeks. Much of this has to do with Anthony Gonzalez, season injury.However, the garcon has been genial.Por therefore has teammate, rookie wide receiver Austin Collie.

Cedric Benson. So many people doubted Benson and skills into the season.There was never averaged more than 4 yards per carry in his career, so there was good reason to think he could not get it hecho.Las things are different when Carson Palmer their QB though.Benson has been great in the first weeks of 2009 football season.

Matt Schaub. who would have thought that Matt Schaub would be the second top scorer in the first 5 games of the season, only behind high fantasy points Peyton Manning? I said no, fantasy football Schaub GM has been brilliant and was a robbery in all drafts.

Time rare fantasy football players pay much attention to the nerds of the National Football League, during his fantasy football drafts. Novice, you see, are not worth much fantasy teams. Takes most newbies a year or two, or in many cases even three or four to get acclimated to the NFL fully maintained. Therefore competitive fantasy football people generally go clear of them.

This year may be different. More NFL freshmen probably appears in lists of fantasy than in the past decade, since this project is enriched with impact players. This is correct, rookies that they can really play this year and contribute to lists of football fantasy - some even as starters. I see at least seven players adopted in the first round of which can be started in computer fantasy, depending on how many computers are in your League NFL draft. Obviously, smaller leagues (8 and 10 team Leagues) will be too rich with veteran talent have rookies as starters.Below is an evaluation of these players and others to keep an eye as it prepares for its project of the QBs fantasía.Aviso remain, as do not contribute much, even if you start.

They are the seven rounders first NFL destination: Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams and Mark Clayton.Brown, Benson and Williams are potential starters fantasía.En footballer one of the best running back in recent memory, these guys will enter your campaigns rookie as function performs for Miami, Chicago and Tampa Bay, respectively. These teams have shown that the boy right toting mail, all of them can produce fantasy stars.

Although it is not the best player, Benson is probably the best selection of all the nerds in terms of value fantasía.Él football is not a-brainer in basic scoring leagues. He will be starting from the first day, and some experts have called the best runner of the goal line never to quit school. If it is healthy, Benson could easily run 12 or more members in their inaugural season.

Edwards is a motor of suspend for the Browns, and this guy is a bolt is true.While he may start in some fantasy football leagues, you'll want to do it later, Cleveland is a team who has not been much in the last few years. Edwards is a bargain if you can get it in subsequent rounds. Then let it stand for a few weeks and see its production. The same goes for Williams, Detroit and Clayton, selected by Baltimore. It is likely that both of these receptors starts his new computers, but indicated an attitude of "wait and see", since both teams are in crimes of weak step while the sky is the limit for the Lions a wideout selected with your first choice in each of the last three seasons.

Apart from these seven, there are several players adopted after the first round of the NFL draft worth drafting in fantasy football teams. In particular is J.J. Arrington, taken at number 12 in two round by Arizona. Dennis Green loves this guy and hinted project that Arrington will be day back function. This guy is a compact and has a nose for the end zone. A feature back to a team of Cardinals improvement might be a great scorer for fantasy teams.

The easiest way to steal in the fantasy football draft will be Ryan Moats taken in the third round by Philadelphia. Moats, a small tailback of Louisiana Tech, could be surprised by a team of Eagles in the need of a star in the position.While it may probably be relegated to special equipment and the use of third-down from the beginning, looking for him to emerge, especially if somebody someone gets herido.Es a corridor fast slashing and a true workhorse, in spite of its framework for 5-8, 210-libra.Una season striking senior saw it record 288 scree 1,774 yards and 18 touchdowns.Their 1,890 all-purpose yards set a record of the school, as proved that he can catch the ball with acumen almost igual.Con career average per carry 6.4 and 28 members, moats is definitely worth the penalty mirar.Agarra this worker in the final rounds of your project and wait for him to get his shift. If the stars align in Philadelphia, may only receive yourself the theft of your fantasy football draft.

Here are some other notables that you might want to see for a final selection or a collection of free agency, as the season progresses:

1 Heath Miller, TE adopted by Pittsburgh: would be sorted higher, because he will probably start but tight ends are always a big question mark.If you're in a League of fantasy that requires you to take a tight end, Miller is a good.

2 Vernand Morency, selected by Houston RB: see second injury Domanick Davis and handhold Morency occurs.

3 Maurice Clarett, RB adopted by Denver: They love him and I would like to see you try all critics wrong.He will get a chance to play.

4 Matt Jones, WR selected by Jacksonville: many feel the former QB is the best athlete in the NFL draft.6-6 4-5 Speed and big hands, who knows?

5 Roddy White, WR adopted by Atlanta first quick ronda.Muy and infravalorado.Los Falcons was little Michael Jenkins last season, so be careful in white.

6 Chris Henry, WR adopted by large Cincinnati.Muy and rápido.Podría be a factor of about 3 and 4 receiver sets goal line.

7 Selected by Filadelfia.Los Eagles WR Reggie Brown have some few signs mark the position, not the least of these is strange antics of Terrell Owens.

8 Ciatrick Fason, adopted by Minnesota.Con RB running back be so unstable, Fason could emerge as the engine of arranque.Ver this one closely.